With digitalization, consumption of services in the Public Sector is likely to merge with consumption of any other service. The Public Sector has served an important purpose in making services such as education, health and social care as well as protection services accessible to all citizens. Given a rapid tech development, changing consumer behaviors, aging population, urbanization and scarce human resources to cater for future needs - which scenarios will we face in 2030? What is the role of the state? What happens when the borders in between the public and private sector are blurred?

Our study about the future consumption of welfare services 2030 combines insights from important industry profiles, public and private sector and researchers, with existing research in this area. Using scenario planning, four likely future scenarios have been defined which describes the role of the state and citizens behavior when consuming health, education and security.

Readers of this report will gain understanding for how the future might look like and develop insights that will help both private and public sector to create future-proofed strategies.

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In the report Future Consumption of Welfare Services 2030, four scenarios for how the future might look like are described. Different events like environmental disasters, political instability, serious security breaches or exponential development of artificial intelligence leads us towards different futures.

The willingness from citizens to make their own decisions to keep in control vs a will to let someone else take the decisions out of reasons for convenience. Extremely specialized and personalized welfare services vs standardized and automated platforms.

Learn more about the 4 scenarios below. Download the complete report for deeper insights and examples.

Data-Driven State is a scenario characterized by restraint to share personal data to commercial players but high trust towards the state. A new government has evolved to secure good handling of personal data of the citizens, in order to provide services matching their needs. A modern welfare state grows and proactive solutions within areas such as health, education and security bring Sweden to a whole new level regarding welfare services.

Global Choice is a scenario where global consciousness regarding the environment has been driven to its extreme, and common efforts are made to drive the sustainability agenda forward. Nation borders have gradually been erased and global tax regulations have been enforced. Swedish welfare services have received competition on a global market where citizens choose themselves from what country they want to consume the welfare services. Sweden specializes in certain areas with the help of investments in artificial intelligence and thus are able to compete on a global market.

Commercialized Welfare is a scenario where comfort and freedom are central. Citizens demand personalized services and are happy to provide their personal data to enable it. The role of the state is to forecast the needs of the citizens and make that information available both to private and public players that act within different ecosystems of society.

Efficiency Game is a scenario where automated and instant consumption of welfare services is important. A few large global players dominate the market and as a consumer you don't care that much who is behind the service. It is more important to receive a smooth and affordable buying experience. The welfare state as we know it today is dead.




Niclas Wallin

Head of New Business
+46 (0)706 - 93 23 94


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